The Three-Two-One: October 2020
3 things to know, 2 things to follow, 1 thing to love
The Three-Two-One is a monthly feature exclusively for my newsletter subscribers. That’s you, right? It’s filled with things I think are the best of the month and simply cannot be missed. Here’s October 2020’s list.
THREE things to know:
The CDC changed its contact guidelines. Again. Right after an early release report in the MMWR, the CDC revised the definition of “close contact exposure” to be 15 minutes of cumulative exposure to a COVID-19 positive person. This is different from the prior definition of 15 consecutive close-contact minutes. The new definition adds a layer of complexity to contact tracing, our own personal awareness, and work/school setup. It also adds a new hurdle to safer Holiday planning.
Locally, this is relevant because I have heard of many sports clubs, therapy sessions, and school extracurriculars intentionally rotating pods of kids every 10 minutes to not-so-cleverly skirt the close contact rule. This “rotation behavior” has to stop. As much as you try, you cannot trick a virus. And especially as we head into winter, we’ve got to get this right.
Masks work: Kansas Edition. Kansans made national news out of our mask wearing habits. Since we have counties in our State that opted-out of our governor's mask mandate order, we have some areas of the State with higher levels of disease than others. Can you guess the connection?
That’s right! The counties that have mask mandates have lower community disease than those without. Here’s a 6-minute presentation by Dr. Ginther of KU explaining the results.
This is a real-life demonstration of the practical utility of wearing masks in high-risk areas, straight from the Heartland. Looking for more? Here’s a nice synthesis of mask science from Robert Roy Britt.
A quick and dirty on COVID testing. COVID testing is complicated and hairy. Testing guidelines are changing and testing data itself is a moving target. But for now, I want you to understand two things.
A PCR test duplicates and amplifies super tiny pieces of the coronavirus’ genetic identity. It remains the most accurate test we have to identify people infected with SARS-CoV-2.
The rapid antigen test identifies the presence of the virus using a physical marker on its outer layer. No amplification or duplication. That means you have to have a large amount of virus in your system to get positive results.
Here’s the point: The rapid antigen test is fairly reliable if it is positive, but a negative result does not mean you are virus-free. As it stands today, rapid testing should not be used to “test out” of quarantine. And it should not be used to ensure you are “safe” to go back to school or daycare, participate in a sporting event, go on vacation, or join a holiday gathering.
Don’t run to the mall or a pop-up “urgent care” for a rapid test before talking with your child’s doctor. I know these places would love to take your money to hand you a negative result, but you could be paying for fatally false reassurance you didn’t expect.
We talked more about testing and ran the math with a brilliant guest on Masks Off Live. Click here and forward to minute 13 for this special treat. Find more details in this piece from Gloria Guglielmi in Nature. (I know, it’s from September, but this newsletter wasn’t even alive back then!)
TWO things to follow:
Local debate rages on about calculating community percent positivity and how this relates to school gating criteria. Getting involved in the politics of this situation is clearly above my pay grade, but I do want parents to have access to reliable data to determine personal risk.
At the end of the day, it’s not one absolute number that matters. Community risk is determined by a trend of a few measures over time. So regardless of how you specifically calculate the positivity rates, it’s clear that in most areas of the country we are heading in a more precarious direction. My preferred places to follow for COVID-19 data are COVIDActNow (web, Facebook, Insta, and Twitter), The COVID Tracking Project (web, Twitter), Pandemics Explained (web), and the AAP for pediatric-centered data (web).
I’m slightly obsessed with Ms. Laurel Bristow, an infectious disease researcher at Emory and “IG baddie for science.” Her account is not for (as one of my friends put it) “pearl-clutching patients,” but if you want practical science with a bit of an edge, follow her on Insta at @kinggutterbaby.
ONE thing I’m loving right now:
Game show reboots.
My attention span has plummeted during the last 6 months. As much as I seek distractible entertainment, getting through a full movie or a full episode of GBBO is increasingly difficult.
That being said, I am beyond thrilled to see old game show reboots hitting primetime airwaves. Supermarket Sweep has a coffee bar. Weakest Link has Jane Lynch. Match Game is just as saucy as it was in the 70s. Quick. Engaging. Attention-holding fun.
My kids yell out answers. The outcries of “Ohhhhhh” or “Nooooo” have become family bonding moments. We don’t stream. We don’t DVR. This is old-fashioned “appointment TV” viewing that shakes up the droning monotony that our Pandemic-induced evening routine had become. For this, I am thankful.
Now, does anyone know someone who can resurrect Hollywood Squares?
To round it out, here are the top 3 Instagram posts of the month. Click on the picture to see the full caption. In addition, lots of parents liked the “KC Kids Doc Kwik Klass” on influenza and COVID-19. You’ll find it here.
Is there something new I should share, follow, or love? Just hit reply or leave your ideas in the comments.
Meanwhile, have a very Happy Halloween, enjoy the blue moon, don’t forget to fall back, and get your flu shot. See you next week.
P.S. A quick thank you for your support and comments during this newsletter’s first month. I’m really happy here, and I hope this has been valuable to you. Growth is my fuel; please consider sharing with someone who might want to listen in.